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The Quad's Evolution: From Dialogue to Deterrence

Maritime domain awareness, Malabar, semiconductors — real outcomes. But the Quad hasn't deterred Chinese grey zone ops. India's burden-sharing must scale up.

Sachin Aggarwal profile image
by Sachin Aggarwal
The Quad's Evolution: From Dialogue to Deterrence

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia — has been declared dead, irrelevant, or imminent on multiple occasions since its 2007 founding. It survived China's diplomatic pressure on its early members, survived India's own ambivalence about its security implications, survived the Trump first-term's transactionalism, and survived the COVID pandemic's disruption of multilateral diplomacy. In 2026, with four leaders' summits, a dozen ministerial meetings, and a growing portfolio of practical cooperation programmes behind it, the Quad is neither dead nor merely a talking shop. It is something more interesting: a security coordination mechanism that delivers real outcomes without the binding commitments that India's strategic autonomy doctrine has always prevented it from accepting.

The question for India in 2026 is not whether the Quad is useful. It demonstrably is. The question is whether it is delivering at the pace and depth that the strategic moment demands.


What the Quad Has Delivered

The Quad's substantive accomplishments across its practical working groups are more significant than its public profile suggests. The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness — launched at the 2022 Tokyo Leaders' Summit — has integrated maritime surveillance data from India's Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region with equivalent US, Japanese, and Australian systems, creating a real-time common operating picture of vessel movements across the Indo-Pacific that no member could sustain alone.

The Quad Vaccine Partnership, which committed to delivering one billion COVID vaccines across the Indo-Pacific by the end of 2022, was partially fulfilled and demonstrated the coalition's ability to mobilise resources at scale for a shared regional objective. The Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group has produced concrete cooperation frameworks in 5G, semiconductor supply chains, and AI standards — work that directly underpins the bilateral technology partnerships (US-India iCET, India-Japan semiconductor cooperation) that are among the most strategically significant elements of India's technology diplomacy.

Malabar — the trilateral naval exercise between India, the US, and Japan (with Australia participating since 2020) — has expanded in scope, complexity, and geographic range. The 2025 Malabar exercise included anti-submarine warfare drills in the Bay of Bengal, surface strike coordination, and for the first time a submarine-tracking exercise that used all four navies' underwater surveillance assets in an integrated operation. These are not symbolic activities. They are the interoperability foundation that joint operations require.


The Limits India Must Acknowledge

The Quad's limitations are as instructive as its achievements. It has not deterred Chinese grey zone operations in the South China Sea, which have intensified despite the Quad's consolidation. It has not produced a collective response to China's LAC aggression against India — the most directly relevant security challenge for the Quad's largest democracy. And it has not resolved the fundamental tension between the US and Australian vision of the Quad as an embryonic security architecture and India's insistence on keeping it a non-alliance cooperation mechanism.

The burden-sharing question is the most pointed. AUKUS — which is explicitly what the Quad is not — represents a level of integrated military commitment among the Anglosphere members that India has declined to match. The US and Australia are investing hundreds of billions in shared submarine capability, integrated logistics, and pre-positioned military assets specifically designed to deter and, if necessary, defeat Chinese military action in the Western Pacific. India's contribution to the shared deterrence architecture, while growing through bilateral agreements, is not proportionate to the threat it faces or the security it implicitly benefits from.

An India that deepens Quad security cooperation — moving from maritime domain awareness and joint exercises toward intelligence sharing, pre-positioning agreements, and logistics integration — would be a more credible deterrence partner and a more valued Quad member. The argument that deeper Quad security cooperation compromises India's strategic autonomy is less compelling with each passing year in which China's military capability and its willingness to use it against Indian interests continue to expand.

The Quad is India's most important multilateral security arrangement. It deserves India's most serious strategic investment.


The Hind covers policy, power, and strategic affairs from India's perspective. Views expressed are analytical and editorial.

Sachin Aggarwal profile image
by Sachin Aggarwal

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