On March 5, 2026, India recorded its lowest-ever discovered price for green hydrogen — ₹279 per kilogram, approximately $3.08 — in a tender for 10,000 tonnes per year of supply to Numaligarh Refinery in Assam. The number matters not just as a data point but as a signal: India's ambition to produce green hydrogen at $2 per kilogram — the threshold at which it becomes genuinely competitive with fossil fuel alternatives — is no longer a distant aspiration. It is a trajectory in motion.

This is the story of the National Green Hydrogen Mission, three years into its implementation. It is a story of real milestones, honest headwinds, and a strategic prize large enough to justify every rupee of the ₹19,744 crore the government has committed — and more.

What India Has Built

Launched in January 2023, the NGHM set a target of 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen production annually by 2030 — backed by 125 GW of new renewable energy capacity, ₹8 lakh crore in investments, 6 lakh new jobs, and the abatement of 50 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. The mission is structured in two phases: Phase I (2022–26), focused on creating demand and scaling electrolyser manufacturing; and Phase II (2026–30), when green hydrogen is expected to achieve cost parity with fossil fuels and commercial-scale deployment across steel, mobility, and shipping.

Three years in, the foundations are real. Fifteen companies have been awarded electrolyser manufacturing capacity of 3,000 MW per annum under the SIGHT scheme, with total incentives of ₹4,440 crore. Eighteen companies hold production capacity allocations of 8,62,000 tonnes per annum. Green ammonia — the most commercially ready derivative — has seen prices discovered by SECI for 7,24,000 tonnes per annum, for supply to 13 fertiliser units across India. A 25-year exemption from Inter-State Transmission System charges for green hydrogen plants commissioned before December 2030 dramatically reduces the cost of renewable electricity inputs — the single largest cost driver in green hydrogen production.

India's renewable energy foundation — which crossed 50% of installed electrical capacity through non-fossil sources by July 2025, five years ahead of its 2030 target — is the structural advantage that makes the $2/kg target credible. Cheap solar and wind power is not just India's energy asset. It is its green hydrogen cost advantage.

The Gap Between Announcement and Reality

But the honest picture requires acknowledging the gap between ambition and execution. As of August 2025, India had 158 green hydrogen projects at various stages of development. Of these, 94% had not moved beyond the announcement stage, and only 2.8% were operational. The primary barriers are clear: a lack of committed buyers creating uncertain demand signals, high production costs relative to current grey hydrogen alternatives, varying definitions of what constitutes "green" hydrogen for international trade purposes, and inadequate storage, transportation, and shared infrastructure — particularly hydrogen pipelines and port-based bunkering facilities.

These are real barriers — but they are not unique to India, and they are not insurmountable. Germany, Japan, and South Korea — all further ahead on the hydrogen curve — have faced identical demand-side constraints and are solving them through the same tools India is deploying: mandatory purchase obligations, demand aggregation, and hydrogen hub co-location. The Kandla port green hydrogen plant, the Andhra Pradesh Juno Joule-Select Energy GmbH export facility targeting 1 million tonnes of green ammonia annually for export, and the Reliance, Adani, L&T and Jindal electrolyser hubs under the SIGHT scheme are all moving from commitment to construction in 2026.

The Strategic Prize — Export Leadership

India's green hydrogen ambition is not merely about domestic energy security. It is about positioning India as a global hub for production, usage, and export — capturing a share of what the IEA projects will be a multi-trillion-dollar clean hydrogen trade by 2050.

The Middle East is India's most immediate export market. Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman — are investing heavily in green hydrogen for their own energy transitions and as a long-term export commodity. India's proximity, its established energy relationships with the Gulf, and its competitive renewable electricity costs make it a natural partner in a regional green hydrogen value chain. The IMEC corridor, which connects India to the Gulf and onward to Europe, is a potential green hydrogen trade artery of enormous strategic and commercial value.

India's green ammonia play is particularly shrewd. By 2035, India's Central Government aims to substitute all ammonia imports used for fertiliser production with domestic green ammonia — eliminating a significant import bill while creating a large, stable domestic demand anchor for the green hydrogen sector. This is the same logic Japan used to build its hydrogen economy: secure domestic demand first, then scale for export.

Phase II of the NGHM, which begins in 2026–27, is when India's green hydrogen story either accelerates or stalls. The government has the right mission architecture, the right incentive framework, and the right renewable foundation. The next test is execution — building the infrastructure, confirming the buyers, and commissioning the projects that 94% of the pipeline still needs to become.

The $2/kg target is not a distant dream. March 5, 2026 proved that. The question is speed.

The Hind covers policy, power, and strategic affairs from India's perspective. Views expressed are analytical and editorial.